There’s one problem, one gigantic problem, that I experience every year in fantasy baseball. I’m sure it plagues your league as well, and it’s awful. You might just be guilty of it:
Refusing to “LOSE” a trade. All but one guy loses the league every year, but no one wants to lose a trade. This is why the majority of leagues really don’t have that much action aside from the waiver-wire.
An Example: The stage is set for a monster trade, you need steals and he needs home-runs. You have depth at first, and he has depth at short. For simplicities sake, you have Albert Pujols and he has Hanley Ramirez. No Injuries, nothing. It’s a perfect trade, that just doesn’t get done.
Why? Both owners are terrified that once they trade away their player, he’ll get hot and they’ll look like an idiot.
This is a problem in pretty much every league, and gets magnified when the conditions aren’t as perfect as mentioned above. Once you start throwing variables like age, injury risk, pitching/hitting, into the mix — the trade is bound to fail.
Solution: Lose the Trade.
First off, this only really applies to stubborn leagues. Float some trades out there and if you can win the trade, go ahead and do so. If after a couple of weeks you’re still plowing through details, go ahead and lose the trade. Everyone wants a grand-theft roto, so give it to ‘em.
Caveat 1: Only do this with teams that can’t beat you. Even if they’re ahead of you in the standings, give ‘em an honest look and figure out if they can realistically beat you over the rest of the season and into the playoffs.
Caveat 2: By losing the trade, you’re putting more value into the hands of your trading partner. It’s generally best to lose a trade right at the trading deadline so he can’t go and peddle his new-found value off to another owner, an owner that CAN beat you.
If you’re trading before the Deadline, make sure he’s one stubborn son-of-a-bitch. Make sure that once you give him this hidden value, that he’ll demand MORE value from anyone he trades with. It’s easy to tell who the stubborn ones are as even the perfectly rational trades get shot-down.
So Why Am I Giving Up More Than I’m Getting?
Because you need it, or you want it. If you’ve managed to draft the perfectly balanced team, and pick up a few complimentary pieces from the waiver-wire, good on yah. Otherwise, you’re going to have some holes to fill.
Generally by the trading dead-line, you know where you stand in each of the categories. The plan is to trade away depth, and turn those 4-pointers into 7-pointers while only losing 1 point off your league leading 12-pts in HR. In Head to Head terms, win HR by 4 each week instead of 8 while giving yourself a 50/50 shot of winning the steals category.
Examine The Waiver Wire:
The best way to lose a trade, is to give up two players for one. I’m not talking typical fantasy strategy where you trade two lesser players for a superstar. That’s probably not going to work unless you’re playing with idiots. What I’m saying is to trade a player of equal value, and then go ahead and toss in another player.
Eg. I’ll trade you Pujols for Ramirez, and I’ll throw in Player X.
Ideally, you’re going to want to have an immediate waiver-wire pick-up in mind when you throw in player X. Obviously, Player X has to be “better” than the player the other team is dropping and presumably better than anyone he can find on the waiver wire. When you lose a trade, you obviously want to lose it by as little as possible to still get the deal done.
What I’ve found, is that Player X doesn’t always have to be “better” than the players on the waiver wire Player X just has to be safer, or more consistant. Sometimes you end up winning the trade because the high-risk player you snagged off the waiver-wire ends up panning out. If he doesn’t, you wash, rinse, and repeat and just keep picking up filler until one pans out.
When to LOSE a trade?
The best times to lose a trade is at the trade deadline, as I mentioned earlier. This minimizes the risk of the fool you’re trading with from turning around and trading the value you gave up to your competition.
Another time, is right after the draft or as early in the season as possible. You’re not going to get everyone you want in the draft, that’s a given. After you examine your roster, it may make sense to trade someone you drafted in the 6th round for someone that was drafted in the late 7th round.
This has the added benefit of allowing you to snag an early waiver-wire gem to fill the void if you end up pulling a 2-for-1.
In the end, you’ll win some and you’ll lose some. You can’t plan for injuries, and you definitely can’t plan for unexpected break-outs.
There’s a reason why the Green Packers traded Brett Favre to the New York Jets rather than the Minnesota Vikings. Trading with people who you don’t play or “cant beat you” makes the most sense. If you can be as clever as the Packers and somehow work in a claus that limits your trading partner from trading Favre to the rival Vikings — You’re Golden.
