2008 brought us 10 pitchers who achieved the magical fantasy mark of 200 strike-outs. 2007 brought us only 8, and 2006 only 6 pitchers who managed to get to the 200K mark.
Obviously, other than skill, the main obstacle is health. With that said, lets break ‘em down into the gents that could achieve 200 strikeouts.
The Sure Things?
Johan Santana – New York Mets
Since grabbing a full-fledged starting gig in 2004, Johan Santana has notched 200+ strike-outs every year — this is good. However, during the same period he’s never pitched less than 219 innings — bad.
Santana’s strike-outs per nine also took a huge hit in 2008, dropping from 9.6K/9 down to 7.91! K/9. In his previous years, they hadn’t fallen below 9.25. Expecting 240IP from Santana is quite a bit, and probably too much — a more realistic goal is 215IP-or bust.
Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
The littlest Lincecum has the “stuff” but he’s just so tiny. It’s always interesting to watch hard-throwers develop, and it’s best to find where the velocity comes from. Chris O’Leary does a solid job analyzing Lincecum’s throwing motion, and notes that there is some inverted-L in there. It’s hard to tell from the angles he provides, and while it looks the part — you really can’t tell how much twist/torque he puts on it.
Lincecum comes in at darn near 10K per nine, which means he does have the lee-way for a DL stint, or maybe two. After last year’s Cy-Young push — I wouldn’t be surprised to see his pitch-count dialed down a bit.
Chad Billingsley – Los Angeles Dodgers
Billingsley stands out because he hasn’t quite reached the “fantasy-ace” plateau yet, his other numbers aren’t quite there yet but he’s probably your third best bet to nab 200K. At 6’1-245lbs, Billingsley certainly fits the part of hard-throwing front of the rotation innings eater.
Billingsley is one of the few pitchers with a 9.00+ K per 9, and no outstanding risk. I’d expect the peripherals to come down as well.
Injuries or Innings Pitched
Here’s the group of ball-players who will either battle injuries, or will have to put up crazy-nuts IP numbers to attain that magical mark.
C.C. Sabathia – New York Yankees
I’m terrified of C.C. this year, and while he’s sturdily? built, I’m not sure about those 253 Innings the Brewers piled on Sabathia during their playoff push. Over the last two years, Sabathia is coming eerily close to 500IP — scary. While there’s nothing to say that Sabathia can’t take it, the Yankees aren’t going to push him considering they’ll have him around for potentially 6 more years after 2009.
Sabathia’s career K per 9 isn’t staggering, but it’s solid. Expecting somewhere around 8K per 9 seems about fair, which would be a slight decline from last year’s stellar 8.93K per 9. Which would put C.C. Sabathia at about 225 Innings Pitched to join the 200K club.
A.J. Burnett – New York Yankees
The Yankees other off-season toy, could be a dandy if he can stay healthy. Burnett has buckets of talent, and the only thing keeping him from fulfilling his all-star potential is his elbow (which i discussed here).
Burnett has the dirty dirty, but signing him to a deal longer than 2-years is suicide. Burnett comes in at about a K per Inning, and has put up 9.5 K per nine over the past couple years.
Quite Simply: 200 IP = 200 K.
Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
It seems as though Hamels is adjusting to the role of ACE, quite well. As his Innings increased, he’s clearly lowered his K rate. His K rate as dropped each year he’s been in the bigs from 9.86, to 8.69, to 2008′s 7.76.
If Hamels stays under 8 K per 9, he’s going to have some issues getting to 200K. It does however make sense to see Hamels K rate even off somewhere closer to the mid-to-low 8′s, which puts him in the right area to approach 200K without incurring crazy pitch-counts or innings-pitched.
Jake Peavy – San Diego Padres
The 200K club is indeed volatile, yet Peavy notched 200K three years in a row from 2005-2007 (216, 215, 240) and then fell off a cliff in 2008. Injuries limited Peavy to 173 IP, and dropped his K:9 down almost a full point to 8.60.
If Peavy stays healthy, he’s a lock for 200K. I’d mark him down for somewhere between his 8.60K/9 mark and his previous marks of 9.50-9.60K/9. If Peavy goes for a K per Inning, as predicted by almost all of the projection models — he’s as good as bet as anyone to get 200K
Rich Harden – Chicago Cubs
He and Lincecum are the top strike-out pitchers in the game. With a 10+ K per 9, Harden can rack up the strikeouts in under 200 IP. The problem is, Harden rarely gets to that mark.
Javier Vazquez – Atlanta Braves
Mr. Reliable. Vazquez seems to put up solid stats wherever he’s shipped off to. While Vazquez hasn’t put up a full 230 IP, since 2004 — with a high-8 k per nine, he doesn’t need it. There’s no reason to believe that Vazquez has hit the wall, and he’s got a solid shot of getting the 220 IP he’ll need to top the 200K mark.
Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw only went for 107 innings, starting 21 Games in 2008. Personally, I expected a bit more than 8.36 K per 9 from Kershaw considering his minor-league track record. A slight increase to about a strike-out per inning seems reasonable, as Kershaw’s got a nasty one-two fastball-curveball combination.
Now, you have to ask yourself how many innings Kershaw will pitch in 2009. He’s the franchise, and Joe Torre will keep him on the shortest leash you can think of. There’s no reason to get his pitch-count too high and risk his future. Even if Kershaw starts enough games, he’ll be getting the quick-hook too often for him to nab 200 IP.
As with any Kershaw Article, I’ll link here: The Hardball Times Evaluates Kershaw.
Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
This is the year for Felix, The King, Hernandez. Felix is all but locked into his 8.50K per 9, and there’s very little reason to believe it’ll take a hit even if he starts pitching rather than throwing. He’ll always be up there for top average velocity on his fastball, and he’ll always have 200K Potential.
Scott Kazmir – Tampa Bay Rays
I’m on the fence with Kazmir more than any pitcher in this group. Kazmir’s tiny-little frame is always going to be a massive injury risk, but it doesn’t particularly look like he’s going to be be a complete waste. When Pitching-God, Rick Peterson, told the public that he could fix Victor Zambrano in one session, the entire trade got blown way out of proportion.
The Mets knew they were dealing away a pitcher in Kazmir that had all of the talent in the world, but was going to be plagued by injuries for the majority of his career. In return, they assumed they were snagging a solid K:9 guy who had one fatal flaw, that Peterson believed was fixable. Well, Zambrano continued to suck it up and Kazmir has already provided enough value to make this one of the worst trades, in recorded history.
Last year Kazmir lowered the amount of sliders he threw by almost 10 percent, and for a pitcher with a wicked slider — this should have posed a problem. Yes, he did drop from 10+ strike-outs per nine down to a very respectable strike-out per inning. He managed to come in at third behind Harden and Chamberlain in K per 9 for pitchers with at least 100IP (which to me eliminates relievers pretty much).
Kazmir is going to need to use his slider to maintain a strike-out per inning ratio, but it’ll more than likely shorten his career. Even if he relegates his slider to a pure out-pitch, using it about 10 percent of the time as he did last year — he’s still an injury risk.
Buyer Beware.
The Rest of the Best?
Dan Haren – Arizona
Ridiculously close, Haren seems to have broken the “Billy-Beane-Decided-To-Trade-Me-So-Now-Imma-Suck-It-Up” curse that so many Athletics have fallen into. I’m not sure if Danny Haren can maintain his 8.50 K per 9, as prior to last year he was regularly posting sub-8.00 K per nine.
Haren has improved each and every year, from his days as a Cardinal to his most recent season as a Diamondback. I’d bank on a mid-7′s K to 9, with about 200-220IP.
Ervin Santana – Los Angeles Angels
Santana just signed himself a big ol’ deal and every thing’s looking up for Ervin. I do however have a hard time believing he’ll replicate his 2008 numbers.
You can trace his drastic improvement to cutting the junk, and throwing his slider harder and more often. He upped the velocity of his slider from 81mph to 84mph, to go along with a 2mph increase in fastball velocity.
This obviously lead to an almost 16 percent improvement (or decrease) in O-Contact. Batters went from making contact with balls tossed outside of the zone from 70 percent in 2007, to 53.6%.
An increase like this in velocity always worries me, as they may know A-Rod’s cousin which could spell injury. Speculation will kill you in fantasy leagues though — or maybe it’ll save you.
Zach Greinke – Kansas City Royals
Everything looks right for a Zach Greinke break-out. A full season, and a slight increase in K per 9 should mean an easy 200K for Greinke.
At this point, I’m banking on Greinke to outperform comparable starters such as Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Ryan Dempster, and Matt Cain. If someone in this list floats your boat, then go with it. Nothing feels better than cashing in on a gut feeling. My second stomach says Nolasco.
Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays
Halladay has to log a lot of innings to come close to 200K and the last time he touched the magic mark prior to last year was 2003 when he went for 266 IP (which he followed up by going for 133IP). Halladay increased his K per 9 to 7.5 last year, which he’ll have issues replicating. Halladay seems like the most likely to fail.
Edison Volquez – Cincinnati Reds
Volquez is another starter I have issues believing will end up with 200 Ks when all’s said and done. This is independent of the amount of fail Volquez will bring to the table, as even with a stellar 2008 9.50 K:9 — I’m not sure if he manages.
Something definitely seems off with Volquez going into 2009, and you have to remember this is the same pitcher that’s constantly battled control issues. If the batters stop swinging, the K’s go down. 2008′s 83 percent contact rate in the ZONE, is a huge drop from his previous seasons of ’round aboot 90ish.
Erik Bedard – Seattle Mariners
Bedard, like Harden, is a ballin’ ass Canadian who has some serious issues staying healthy. Bedard looked to be the Saviour of Seattle, until they realized they gave up way too much to get him (and Adam Jones still hasn’t come close to his potential).
In 2007, Bedard put up a ridiculous 10.71 K per 9 and managed 221 strikeouts in 182 Innings pitched. It’s probably stupid-silly to expect another 10+ K per 9 from Bedard as he’s going to be concentrating on his health –but– a strike-out per seems like a fair ceiling.
Daisuke Matsuzaka – Boston Red Sox
In 2007, Dice-K went for 201 strike-outs in 204 IP. If he manages to go a full-season, of 220-230IP he shouldn’t have a problem hitting 200K.
He will however kill your WHIP, and if he ever decides to stop painting corners his K per 9 is bound to come down.
Ryan Dempster – Chicago Cubs
Something’s fishy about Ryan Dempster, and I can’t put my finger on it. It’s not like Dempster hasn’t done this before: In 2000, Dempster went for 209K in 226 IP. But then, Bingo-Bango-Bongo, Dempster’s K per 9 slowly fell from 8.31 to 6.59 over the next 2 years.
Then Dempster was moved to reliever/closers role, where he hiked thems K’s back up. Last year, as a starter Dempster revisited the nice side of 8 K per 9 posting an 8.14K:9. Which brought him to 187 K’s in 206 Innings.
I’d tend to expect another drop-off from Dempster, and realistically don’t give him a shot at making the 200K club.
Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
He didn’t injure his arm, shoulder or wrist. There’s no reason to expect anything other than a return to form for Gallardo. The problem is, Gallardo only pitched 110 Innings in his Rookie Season of 2007 — so what is a return to form? He spent a full year soaking in the mental aspects of the game, so he should be more mature than you’d expect from someone who hasn’t even pitched 200 total innings in the bigs.
It’s fair to assume Gallardo will continue to put up at least 8 K per 9 at the very minimum. Bill James and CHONE prodjection models have Gallardo coming in at 9.23-9.25 K per 9.
Gallardo definitely isn’t your standard injury risk, but 200 innings may be a lot to ask of him in his first full season in the majors.
We’re Not There Yet
Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox (194 K), Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks(194K), and John Lackey – Anaheim Angels (199K)
None of these fantasy aces have reached 200K’s, ever. They’ve all come tantalizingly close, though. Any one of these guys could put together a season of 200K. You get to choose between whether Beckett gets to 200IP, Webb to 230IP, or Lackey to 225ish.
During the course of this list, I realized that the prevailing thought was that it was more likely for a pitcher to break habit and pitch 200+ innings than it was for a pitcher to raise his K per 9, even half a K.
At this point, I think that’s the opposite of reality.
Let Us Get Crazy: From an Outside Shot to Downright Crazy.
This is where I get to throw out some ridiculous names, and hope for the best. While some of the names may not be completely off the wall, they’ll do.
Outside Shot:
Ted Lilly – Chicago Cubs: His K per 9 always seems to flutter in the high-7′s or low-8′s. He’s obviously got a shot at eclipsing 200K. Verdict: No.
Aaron Harang – Cincinnati Reds: 216 K’s in 2006, 217 K’s in 2007, Mad Suckage to the tune of 153K in 2008. K per 9 bottomed out at about 7.5 last year, a bounce back year? What ever happened to Harang?. Verdict: Close, Real Close. But No.
Ubaldo Jiminez – Colorado Rockies: One of the hardest tossers of the bunch, but pitching at Coors really kills. Regardless, he still puts up a high 7′s K per 9 so he does have a shot. Verdict: O/U 199K.
David Price – Tampa Bay Rays: There’s no way in hell he gets the Innings needed but a 7.5-8K per 9 certainly is attainable for this over-hyped future stud. Verdict: BUZZZ, No.
Joba Chamberlain – New York Yankees: Joba’s struck out 10.5 batters per nine innings last year, and while it’s bound to come down if he switches to a full time starter; you’re still looking at a strike-out per inning. The only question here is, how will Joba be used? The Yankees have improved across the board, and at this point — I dont really consider Joba in the equation. It’s not “How will Joba do in Relief vs. Starting?”, the question is “Will we get more value from Phil Hughes starting and Joba in the pen, than we will with Joba starting and Hughes in the Pen?”
I tend to think that Hughes should start, and Joba dominate the ass-end of the ballgame, at least to start. Someone on that Yankees staff is going to get hurt, and I doubt they’ll have all four guys (Sabathia, Burnett, HGH-Andy, and Chairman-Wang) healthy at one time.
Joba notches 170 IP, which’ll put him close but no cigar. Actually, lets say 171 IP to make the math easier: 171IP = 19 Games (per 9s) * 9 K per 9 = 171 strike-outs (or times 10 = 190 K)
Close, but no cigar. If Joba starts and finishes with a starting gig, it’ll be wise to assume somewhere in the region of 8.75-9 K per 9. So, with a strike-out per inning pitched, you can do the math. 200IP = 200K. Verdict: If the Yankees rotation can stay somewhat healthy, The Fail. Otherwise, the success
Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins
Nolasco put up some great late-season numbers last year, and he goes into 2009 as everyone’s favourite Sleeper at the starting pitcher position.
I like Nolasco’s 7.88 K’s per 9, but based on his Minor League numbers I’d expect a small dip. Even at 7.5 K per 9, Nolasco is the kind of pitcher that can eat enough innings to spit out 200K. Verdict: One of the best sleepers out there, but not a 200K man.
Time To Inhale Some Crack Cocaine…
Chris Young – San Diego Padres: There’s absolutely no piece of imperical data that shows Chris Young can come close to 200IP. The man does bring the nasty though, and with somewhere on the nice side of 8 K per 9, he doesn’t have to go for crazy Innings — just get by 200IP. Verdict: I’m buying it.
John Maine – New York Mets: Not sure about this one, and I dont particularly feel like predicting a return to 8.48 K per 9 for Maine to go along with 215IP. Verdict: Fail.
Wandy Rodriguez – Houston Astros: Wandy didn’t even get to 150 innings pitched last year, but he made ‘em count. Posting an 8.58 K per 9 opens eyes, and while it might be a bit much to ask of Wandy to go for 200K — he is a nice little sleeper going into 2009. He’s also got a great name, and crazy-awesome home/road splits. Verdict: Better Pitcher in 2009, Worse K to 9 Ratio.
Oliver Perez – New York Mets: In 2004, Perez had one of the best sliders in the game and he posted darn-near 240K. Then Perez turned on the suck-switch, and the free-fall began. Over the last two years, Perez has went for 8.85 and 8.35 K per nine but hasn’t had the IP to top the 200K mark. If Perez can manage himself 220 IP, he’ll come darn close to 200K. Verdict: 185K’s isn’t 200.
Randy Johnson – San Francisco Giants: There’s no way the Big Unit stays healthy. Other than that, he switched to a lovely park, and posted a 8.46 K per 9 last year. That’s higher than young-guns like Kershaw, Cueto, Parra, Greinke. Verdict: No, Not Possible. Dagger!
Jonathan O. Sanchez – San Francisco Giants: The ERA looks ugly, but the K per 9 is gorgeous. Right now Sanchez sits as the Giants’ fifth starter, and 200 IP is a bit of a longshot but…
Rich Hill – Baltimore Orioles: Really, it could seriously happen. The whole 8 BB per 9 last year is sort of AWFUL, but he’s got the K potential. In 2006, and 2007, Hill went for 8.15 and 8.45 respectively.
Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins: Even after Tommy John Surgery, Liriano is still coming darn close to a strike-out per. He’s no longer that 12K per 9 guy, and his slider no longer has the bite but he’s still got a darn good shot if he can get to 200 IP. Verdict: Naw..Well Maybe..Close..Okay, Sure.
Now, The List (in no particular order).
- Johan Santana
- Tim Lincecum
- Chad Billingsley
- Jake Peavy
- Javier Vazquez
- Felix Hernandez
- Zach Greinke
- Erik Bedard
- Chris Young (ouch)
- Yovanni Gallardo
- Danny Haren
Obviously guys like Sabathia and Burnett, even Harden have a better shot at touching 200K’s than Chris Young or Erik Bedard.
Chris Young Photo Courtesy Of SD Dirk / Flickr
