So Mr. Aviles, you appeared as if you were going to be a life-long minor leaguer. Your skill set doesn’t particularly fill up the stat sheet, nor does it generally create all that much hype. Then you get to the majors and put up a .325 Batting average in 419AB.
Mike Aviles, welcome to the hype machine.
Seeing as how Mike Aviles has only played but one season in the major leagues, it’s going to be somewhat useful to look deeper into his minor league past. First off, the stats from 2008 for Mike Aviles, Royals Shortstop / Second Baseman.
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | OBP | SLG | AVG |
| 2008 | KC | 102 | 419 | 68 | 136 | 10 | 51 | 18 | 58 | 8 | 3 | .354 | .480 | .325 |
| Total | 102 | 419 | 68 | 136 | 10 | 51 | 18 | 58 | 8 | 3 | .354 | .480 | .325 |
Followed by his Minor League Statistics:
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | OBP | SLG | AVG |
| 2003 | R-Royals | 52 | 212 | 51 | 77 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 13 | 28 | 11 | 5 | .404 | .585 | .363 |
| 2004 | A-Wilmington | 126 | 463 | 66 | 139 | 40 | 4 | 6 | 69 | 39 | 57 | 2 | 5 | .352 | .443 | .300 |
| 2005 | AA-Wichita | 133 | 521 | 79 | 146 | 33 | 6 | 14 | 80 | 30 | 64 | 11 | 6 | .318 | .447 | .280 |
| 2006 | AAA-Omaha | 129 | 469 | 52 | 124 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 28 | 48 | 14 | 5 | .307 | .373 | .264 |
| 2007 | AAA-Omaha | 133 | 538 | 78 | 159 | 27 | 6 | 17 | 77 | 30 | 59 | 5 | 5 | .332 | .463 | .296 |
| 2008 | AAA-Omaha | 51 | 214 | 42 | 72 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 42 | 11 | 23 | 3 | 0 | .370 | .631 | .336 |
So what the hell happened in 2008? Somehow, through a series of levers and pulleys, Mike Aviles managed to put up amazing numbers in triple-A and then carry them over to the major league level.
First off, Aviles comes in as a useful cog even if he under performs. Trey Hillman’s only other option is Tony Pena Jr. who may well be the worst hitting player, let alone shortstop, in the history of the game. There are at least 5 pitchers I’d rather hand the bat too in a clutch situation.
The first problem with Aviles, is that he came out of nowhere.
- This could be a random fluctuation in his stats, even when spread about 600 PA there is still an insane margin of error. I’ve recommended “The Book” before, but it does explain quite well that even a full season isn’t a particularly stellar means of judging a players talent.
- Secondly, something like this screams performance enhancing drugs.
- Third, and the one you’re hoping for if you’re drafting Aviles — something clicked.
In Six minor league seasons, Aviles hit a respectable .297 with very little power or speed. In one major league season, Aviles hit .325.
Maybe something did click, but Aviles has very little margin for error. While his contact rate is solid 84.4% contact rate, with a 91% contact rate in the zone. With that said, Aviles only walks 4-5% of the time. As he only strikes out 10-13% of the time, this keeps his BB:K at a manageable .40-.50.
Aviles batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was an inflated .359, which is bound to come down. The standard practice of adding .120 to a players line-drive percentage brings an expected BABIP to about .320. Aviles batting average should come down to levels more likely around his minor numbers, and expecting something between .275-.290 is aboot right. Bill James’ projection system has Aviles hitting about .288, sounds good.
When you combine that with the fact that Aviles doesn’t walk, we’ve got a problem. You’ve got to get on base to score runs, and while I’m high on the Royals offense, we’ve got a big problem.
This’ll more than likely mean a demotion in the batting order to the lower half, more than likely 6th or seventh which results in another problem, a lack of RBI.
Bill James’ has Aviles at 78 Runs and 72 RBI, but I’m not quite buying it. He’ll come close, but there are plenty of other guys that’ll have an equal shot at those numbers.
The Verdict: Do Not Feed The Machine! If you really want to, just get your tetanis shot first. It is old and rusty.
Photo Courtesy of TeresaHsu / Flickr.com
