Boogity, Boogity, Boogity. Let’s go racing. Each year, somewhere around ten guys go and swipe forty bases. Occasionally, someone will go and destroy the 40-SB mark and post a number like 68 (Tavares, 2008) or 78 (Reyes, 2007).
Only the total stolen bases will be factored when evaluating potential 40-SB guys in 2009. I’ll include CS (caught stealing) and NSB (net stolen bases) if they stand out, or give some variety of insight — but I wont be ranking the players based on either of these statistics.
Value Predicated On Speed and Speed Alone:
Willy Tavares – Cincinnati Reds: Tavares managed to snag himself a 6.25M dollar deal with the Reds this off-season, paying him 2.25M in 2009 and 4M in 2010. Tavares does what he does, and does it well — He steals bases at a great clip: 68 SB in 75 attempts. Recently Tavares dropped a WORD-BOMB courtesy of Dayton’s Daily-est of All Daily News:
Taveras, newest leadoff hitter for the Cincinnati Reds, doesn’t change expressions when he says, “I can steal 100 bases this year.”
That’s because Taveras believes he should get 700 plate appearances this year. He also believes he can hit .300 and raise his on-base average to .350.
“Do all that and, yes, I can see steal 100 bases,” he said.
While I’m not particularly high on guys like Tavares, last year’s .251 average wasn’t indicative of Tavares’ actual ability. Tavares is more likely to go and put up a .275 to .280 average. Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel have him coming in at .282, .273, and .276 respectively. Competition: Chris Dickerson.
phillenium1979.flickr
Michael Bourn – Houston Astros: With Bourn, you’re getting a terrible batting average. A Batting Average so bad, he may eventually swing himself out of the line-up. Hopefully last year’s .229 average was a mistake that can be improved upon, and even hiking it up to .250 would exponentially raise his value.
Bourn recently inked himself a 1-year 434K contract, and while he didn’t show that a contract year meant an increase in production last year — he hopefully does this year. Bourn went for 41 SB in 2008, and was only nabbed 10 times. If the speedy Bourn can keep his butt in the line-up, I’d expect an increase across the board. With Carlos Lee back to health, Bourn’s opportunities may decline but he should still manage to top 40 stolen bases. Competition: OBP
Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins: In 2008, his first full season in the bigs, Carlos Gomez went 33 for 44 in the stolen base category. Unfortunately, like Michael Bourn, Gomez has some serious OBP issues which are magnified by a ridiculous K%. There’s no conceivable reason that your lead-off hitter of the future should be striking out a quarter of the time while only walking 4.6% of the time. This is unfortunately in-line with Gomez’s minor league numbers. There is a glimmer of hope though: Gomez managed to only strike-out 16.9% of the time, while walking 9.9% of the time in Triple-A in 2007. Unfortunately when Gomez was called up in 2007, he posted a 21.7 strike-out percentage to go with a 6.0% walk rate.
If Gomez can maintain the starting CF job the entire year, he should have no problems getting to the magic mark of 40-SB. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins have a lot of young-talented-outfielders. Right now, it’s shaping up with Delmon Young in left, Gomez in Center, and Cuddyer in right, with Kubel DHing. This leaves Denard Span as the fourth outfielder, and Jason Pridie out in the cold. If Gomez can’t hack it, Span will step in and flourish. Competition: Getting the Bat on the Ball and Denard Span’s picture perfect smile.
Jerry Owens – Chicago White Sox: Owens has become a master of bringing the suck, but he can still fly. Owens currently sits atop the CF depth chart for your Chicago White Sox, but Ozzie Guillen tends to believe otherwise hinting that Wise has the inside gig on the starting CF job. It’ll be interesting to see if Owens can wrangle-up enough at-bats with Brian Anderson and DeWayne Wise out there. In 2007, Owens managed 93 Games for the Sox and proceeded to steal 32 Bases (went 32/4o) — Good. If Owens can manage 450-500 AB in 2009, he has a realistic shot at 40 SB.
Unfortunately, he brings nothing else to the table and will more than likely kill your average. Right now, it does appear to be one of those full fledged “open-competitions” that we always hear about. Monitor Owens and the chatter coming out of Sox camp over the net few weeks. Competition: Brian N. Anderson and DeWayne Wise.
Rajai Davis – Oakland Athletics: Davis is quick-fast, yet built like a powder-keg. He falls into the “not-wanna-fuck-wit” category. Davis does however have some issues, and most of those issues fall into the “baseball-skills” category. His OPS should be better than the .643 he posted last year, but Davis should be a waiver-wire-flyer. To make matters worse, it looks as though Ryan Sweeney may be snagging the starting center-fielder at bats. Davis has got a shot at 40, but he needs at-bats. Competition: Ryan Sweeney, Eric Patterson, Travis Buck — Who knows. They’re all just keeping the seat warm for Cunningham.
San Francisco Giants Second Base Gig - This’ll be interesting. So long as Fransden doesn’t hold onto the second base gig — there will be speed. Whether it’s Velez, or Emmanuel Burriss, there’s going to be some stolen base attempts on a pretty God-Awful Giants squad. The only way that anyone gets to 40, is a full-time gig or an injury to Renteria. A very mediocre batting average should also be expected.
A Nice Average or OBP Means MOAR! MOAR! MOAR! Runs.
Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox: Ellsbury isn’t going to bring a whole lot of power, but you’ll snag 5 – 10 HR from him. The value with Ellsbury comes from his average, as last year he put up a .280 average and his minor league numbers lead all of the robots to believe he should improve on that number (Bill James: .302, CHONE: .297, Marcel: .289, Oliver: .284)
With Ellsbury batting around the .290 mark and getting on base at a .350 clip; he should be scoring a boat-load of runs. There’s no reason the potent Red Sox line-up shouldn’t be lead off with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz/Youkilis.
With that said, Ellsbury swiped 50 bags in 2008 and should be somewhere around the same mark in 2009. Assuming Pedroia has a bit of a drop-off from his MVP season of 2008; Ellsbury should be given at least the same number of opportunities to steal — if not more. Competition: Ellsbury doesn’t have any competition, but you’re more than likely going to have to overpay to get him as every draft has at least one Red Sox nut.
Rafael Amado Deras -
Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners: Ichiro has done the same thing for as I can remember, and there’s no reason to fault him for consistently putting up 200 Hits. Ichiro is getting older however, so it’d make sense to expect a slight down-turn in his 2009 stats.
Ichiro wont bat .372 again, let alone .351 which he did as recently has 2007. Ichiro will hit .310-.320ish and with the awfulness that is the Mariners; You can safely assume he’ll steal at least 35 Bases. Whether or not he gets to 40 will largely depend on how much he runs, obviously. Last year Ichiro went and stole 43 Bases while only getting caught 4 times.
Most of the prediction models have Ichiro drastically declining in the stolen base category. Ichiro doesn’t age like other players born in ’73 though, Ichiro’s a machine. Expecting 100 Runs and 50 RBIs to go with a .300+ average and 35-40 SB seems about right. Competition: Father time, and the degree of suck Seattle brings to the table.
Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts just re-upped for another 4 years at 10M a pop with the Baltimore Orioles. Whether or not this is good for Roberts’ fantasy value is up in the air, but it does make projecting his value quite a bit easier. Roberts has leveled off over the past couple years, and like Ichiro, it’d make sense to expect a small decline.
As the Orioles are in the stacked AL East, I’d imagine the Orioles will have anyone that can run, blazin’ the base-paths. In 2007, Roberts stole 50 bases while only getting nabbed 7 times. Roberts followed it up with a 40SB season, with only 10 CS. Roberts has shown he’s capable of stealing at a rate that’s productive, rather than just stealing to steal. With that said, 40SB, 100R, 55RBI, 5-10HR, and a .280-.290 AVG. That’s pretty solid for an aging middle infielder.
Roberts put up a career high 17% K rate last year, and when you couple that with a slight decline in walk rate — we may have a problem. However, both of these are negated by his increase in Batting Average which makes clear his intentions: Be Aggressive, Be, Be, Aggressive. However, if he keeps up this approach his counting stats will drop off far quicker with an age induced decline in skill. Competition: Age and the AL EAST pitching.
Chone Figgins – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 2008 wasn’t a banner year for Chone and after three consecutive years of 150+ games (2004-2006 inc.), Chone has put up two straight years of 115ish games. So what should we expect from Figgins?
artolog - flickr
Bill James’ robot has Chone at 153 Games, and 60 SB attempts. This seems a wee bit optimistic. Using this model, Chone comes out with 43SB and 17CS to go along with 101R, 56RBI, 5HR, and a .287 AVG. The line would obviously make Chone Figgins one of the more valuable MI/CI.
Over the past couple years of 115 Games, Figgins has improved upon his BB% and in turn, OBP. 2007′s OBP of .393 may be a smidgen optimistic, but a replication of 2008′s OBP of .367 seems about right.
The Angels’ entire line-up is an injury waiting to happen, including Figgins. If Figgins can stay healthy, he’ll find himself a place to play even if Brandon Wood cashes in on his unlimited potential. Competition: His Health, and the Health of Others.
Kaz Matsui – Houston Astros: Here we’ve got a pretty simple analysis. Matsui is gettin’ old, he was born in ’75, and he hasn’t played more than 114G in his MLB career. With that said, Matsui went for 20 SB in 96 Games in 2008 and 32SB in 104 games in 2007 as a member of the Rockies. Matsui doesn’t get caught, and the only thing standing in his way is health. Competition: General Health, including but not limited to, Anal Fissures.
Josh Anderson – Atlanta Braves: If Anderson can take hold of the Braves’ starting center-fielder job, he’ll be dangerous. In 40 Games, Anderson stole 10 bases. Anderson has stole 40 bases in the last three Minor League seasons, and he’s predicted to be at least a capable hitter for average. If Anderson can post a .285 average, he’ll be a valuable cog in the Braves outfield.
Here’s what the Robots have to say: Bill James-132G, 39SB, 10CS. CHONE-140G, 33SB, 10CS. Oliver has Anderson racking up 631 AB, which is the most of the bunch but fails to list SB numbers. Competition: Early in the season, Blanco. Late in the season, Heyward or Schaffer.
Juan Pierre – Los Angeles Dodgers: Well it appears as though the Dodgers’ fall-back plans have signed with Washington (Dunn) and the Angels (Abreu). So if Manny Ramirez doesn’t sign, it looks like Pierre will get his guaranteed AB. If Manny does sign, Pierre will be relegated to a time-share with Andre Ethier. Pierre can steal 40 bases even if he only gets 115 Games. His batting average will be respectable, so he wont hurt you. Competition: Manny for ABs. Hudson and Furcal for a Run-Scoring position in the line-up.
Coco Crisp – Kansas City Royals: The Royals traded Ramon Ramirez, noted ass scratcher, to the Sox in return for Crisp. It looks initially like both teams got what they were looking for, so world peace shall ensue. Throwing Crisp in here is a testament to the “fuck-off” factor that allows mediocre players to become superstars once they leave Big-Market squads. No reason to believe Crisp will steal 40, but he’s definitely capable of it while posting a half-decent batting average.
Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies: Thank the Lord for Victorino’s lack-luster start last year, as it allowed me to acquire him in a whole ‘ella lot of leagues. All of the Robots have Victorinio coming in somewhere between 25 and 30SB which seems a smidgen low, as they probably factor in Victorino’s minor league numbers. In 2001, 2002, Victorino was stealing 40+ bases and then for some reason unknown to me (yes, I’m lazy); Victorino stopped stealing bases from 2003-2006.
This has clearly fooled the Robots, who are generally pretty wise. If you just forget those years happened, the Robots will probably spit out a number in the high 30′s which puts Victorino close enough to 40 to warrant consideration. Victorino doesn’t get to 40 SB in my book, but he’ll come close. It does indeedly do look as though the Phils’ outfield is set in stone with Ibanez in left, Victorino in center, and the Genkins/Werth time-share in right. Competition: The Robots
Finally, The Guys That’ll Actually Help You (In Most Categories)
If there’s the potential for at least 15-20 HR to go along with those 40 SB, here’s the category. Obviously most of these guys will be top-5 rounders, or top-5 picks for that matter. Unless there’s a glaring hole, I won’t explain why you need to draft Grady, Jose, or Hanley.
Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies: Rollins is coming ridiculously close to falling into the previous category, alongside Ichiro Suzuki. However, he’s clearly shown he has the potential to kill-smash the ball. In 2006, Rollins went for 25 HR and 36 SB and 2007 brought a career season with, 30HR and 41SB.
With that said, Rollins only hit 11HR while stealing 47 Stolen bases in only 137 Games. The Robots tend to think Rollins is going to come in with 17-18 HR with 35+ SB. Rollins consistently puts up a solid K-Rate, and a half-decent BB-Rate. The Phils are solid, and you should expect a nice little bounce-back year from Rollins. Competition: Health. I’m not quite ready to toss in the “Age” problem yet, even though Rollins is 30 years old.
Malingering Flickr
Carl Crawford – Tampa Bay Rays: Crawford should be able to hit 15HR in 2009, even though he’s had a downturn in power since 2006. Crawford has the potential of bringing some of the best value in your draft, or any draft. Crawford was essentially a lock for 50SB each and every year, until he went and dropped 25 SB on all of his less than pleased owners, in 2008.
The Robots expect Crawford to bounce back to the mid-to-high 30′s, but I’d assume he’d easily eclipse 40 unless something goes wrong. Crawford also comes in as a very consistent .300 hitter, that’ll help you not just in Runs but RBI as well in an ever improving Rays’ line-up. Competition: Health, and Plate Approach.
Jose Reyes – New York Mets: After 60 in ’05, 64 in ’06, and then 78 in ’07, it made sense to expect Reyes to go for 56 SB in 2008. Reyes however, should have developed more than 16HR power by now. He came in and everyone looked at him and figured upon 20HR power, yet he hasn’t quite closed in on that number.
Reyes may need to sacrafice some speed to get past that magical 20HR mark, but almost any fantasy owner would be happy with 45 SB, and 22-23HR over 55SB and 14HR.
There’s no reason to expect anything but a full, healthy, and productive 2009 from Jose Reyes. Competition: Your expectations, and Random Injuries.
B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays: After 24 HR, and 22 SB in only 129 Games in 2007 greatness was expected from Mr. Upton. Greatness was achieved, but it involved a massive decrease in power, and a massive increase in “speed”.
It’d be wise to assume that Upton will level off, and he’ll spit out the average of the previous two seasons: 18-20HR and 35-40SB seems about right. Upton was a sure-fire first round pick if he ever managed to figure out second base, but now it looks like he’s just a very good player at a very deep outfield position.
Grady Sizemore – Cleveland Indians: Sizemore is about as safe as you can get in a first round pick. Most fantasy hounds are delighted with the 30HR power, and are willing to sacrafice the 15-20pt drop in batting average. Realistically, the 38 SB will probably decline rather than bounce up to the magical, mystical, 40SB mark but everything else is a beaut. Expect round about 100RBI, 100R, 25-30HR, 30-35SB, and a .275 AVG. Competition: Your Draft Position.
Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins: After posting 51SB in his first two big-league seasons, Ramirez decided that he wanted to add 33HR power to his repertoire. Realistically, I’d bank on a decrease in power and a return to the 45-50SB area. Ramirez’s production will depend on how the rest of the line-up fairs. If guys get on base, Ramirez will mash. If something goes wrong, Hanley will steal. Quite Simply: The production will be there, but whether or not the crazy-value comes from SB or HR is still up in the air.
Too Many Variables, Not Enough DATA! The Youngings
Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins: Not often do you see so much discussion on a top-prospect. People either love Maybin or hate everything that he stands for. The people who love Cameron Maybin are the “eyeball test” folk who believe you can judge a baseball player by watching him play. The people who aren’t all that fond of Cameron Maybin are the stats geeks. By no means do the stats-geeks think Maybin can’t contribute at the Major League level, they just take issue with the “next great player / five tool player” tag that follows Maybin wherever he goes. Normally when Florida wants a prospect however, he ends up being pretty darn solid.
With that said, I’m not sure what category Cameron Maybin will fall into. His batting average may hurt you, and he could easily end up posting Carlos Gomez type numbers. There’s a great article here, which pretty much expresses how everyone with a clue feels about Maybin. Maybin does have solid power potential, which could easily develop into great power potential considering his position.
Maybin could end up being a top-50 player this year, if all goes well — real well. Florida’s got a solid staff, but their offense is going to be iffy. They’d be better suited having a guy who can get on-base ahead of the boom-or-bust squad that is Cantu, Uggla, McPherson, and Ross.
Competition: The Minors and AVG.
Elvis Andrus – Texas Rangers: Whoa, Nelly. I like Andrus quite a bit this year, and if you can understand what you’re getting from him — he’ll be a steal. The one thing you’re guaranteed is speed, please understand that. Everything after stolen bases is just gravy, and expecting more from him could land you in hot water.
With that said, Andrus could realistically bat .275 and force his way to the top of the Rangers line-up which would make him into an AVG, R, and SB player.
Now for the problems: He doesn’t walk enough, and he strikes out to much. Asking him to bat in the top half of the order is asking a lot. He has very little power to speak of, but should eventually grow into some.
Back to the Good-ness: Andrus, with a full-time gig, could steal 50-something bases.
Competition: Maturity as a hitter.
Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates: I’m not buying it yet, but he looks to at least have one of the outfield spots on lock-down. He hasn’t stole 40 in the minors, but came close enough last year, posting 34 SB in 512 PA for the Pirates triple-A club.
Just a name to keep in mind…
Alcides Escobar – Milwaukee Brewers: Hrm. Maybe the Brewers can find a way to work Escobar into the mix, as right now he’s stuck behind Rickie Weeks and the J-iest of Hardys. If they could move Hardy to third, and take Bill Hall out back behind the woodshed, we’d be set.
Escobar stole 34 bags in 131 Games for the Brewers triple-a affiliate last year, so if he plays all year (he won’t) he could easily break the magical 40SB mark.
…just another guy to keep an eye on. Hopefully if I talk about putting Bill Hall out of his misery often enough, he’ll just….give up.
I’m not buying 40SB, But In Case You Do…
Malingering - Flickr
Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers: Joe Torre let him run, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll be throttled this year. Everyone’s favourite sleeper this side of Josh Hamilton last year; Kemp exhibited some traits that don’t bode well for a repeat. 7% BB Rate is worrisome by itself, but when combined with his strike-out rate of 25% — We’ve got a problem. Kemp’s .363 BABIP is also curious but if the Robots are willing to believe Kemp can maintain it, I’ll buy it. I’m sure his 23% line drive rate has something to do with it.
So, why don’t I think Kemp will hit 40 after posting 35 in his first full season? It’s the economy, stupid. Wait, no. It has everything to do with his power numbers, though. Kemp should easily develop into a 30 HR threat as soon as this year, but it’ll largely depend upon his plate approach. This is a firm view I have, and it has very little to do with data or statistics, but everything to do with common sense.
If a player is ever described as a ridiculous athlete, he gets to choose whether he hits home runs or steals bases. Of course, there is a very small minority that can post a 30/30 and Kemp may well be one of these guys. Realistically, it makes more sense to look at Kemp as a 25/25 threat for the next five years rather than an 18HR/40SB threat.
Alex Rios – Toronto Blue Jays: Cito Gaston will not have it. As regular visitor of the Rogers Centre, I’d like to see Rios up the power and dial-down the speed. Of course if the Jays stink up the joint, which they surely will; There’s no reason to think that any Jay who wants to run will be prohibited from doing so. I think last year was Rios’ ceiling, stolen-base wise. A more realistic projection for 2009, would be about the 22-26SB range.
Malingering - Flickr
Rafael Furcal – Los Angeles Dodgers: I don’t even need to read this article, as the headline surely expresses every concern you could possibly have, “Can Rafael Furcal Overcome Injuries?“. Last time Raffy played a whole season, he stole 37 bases; The season before that he stole 46 Bases.
Proof Enough for Me!
Last year in limited action, Raffy was still running — stealing 8 bases in 36 games, or 164 PA which is about a fifth of the season. So, 40 is a possibility. Bam!
Proof Enough for Me!
An Outside Shot — Like Real Outside
Felipe Lopez and Eric Byrnes of Youuuurrrrrrrrr Arizona Diamondbacks: Lopez stole 44 bases in 2006 and before Byrnes was the “cool guy” on Fox’s baseball telecast he stole 50 in 2007.
Alfonso Soriano – Chicago Cubs: Remember when Soriano went 40-40 for the Nationals? Or went 35-35, two years in a row as a young Yankee? As a member of the Chicago Cubs, Soriano has almost stolen 40 bases. The problem is, it’s been 19 SB each year or 38 SB in 244 Games.
It could happen though…
