Forget About It: Punting Batting Average?

Almost everyone has thought about punting saves, but has it occurred to you to punt batting average? There was a time in baseball where a player was his batting average. Now, with the plethora of statistics available to GMs and Billy Beane’s general insanity; A players On-Base-Percentage, and Slugging Percentage may well be more important than a players BA.

This is how we get a flaw in the fantasy baseball market.  Fantasy Baseball still uses Batting Average as one of the five hitting categories.

Nothing deflates a players fantasy value more, than a poor batting average.  Guys with 50 steals that kill your batting average, drop from round 2 to round 10.  If you spend your first few picks getting guys with .310 BA, it’d be silly to ruin it with a .230 BA guy.  You’re paying quite a bit for that BA, so why throw it out the window?

The Answer: Don’t pay for batting average.

This year seems to be especially plentiful, so here are the guys to target if you’re going to toss batting average out the window. There is one caveat though: Make sure the player has a full time gig, or you believe he’ll keep his job even though he’s batting sub-.250

Isolated Power, or ISO, is one of the statistics I’m using to prepare these lists. To Calculate ISO, subtract the average (we want bad) from the slugging percentage (we want high).

Catcher:

Catcher is a mess, and unless you get Russ Martin, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann or Geovany Soto, you’re not going to get much from the Catcher spot anyways.

The guys who make sense here are:

1. Chris Iannetta – Colorado Rockies – Probably your best bet, Iannetta’s a bit of a sleeper this year which may drive up his value, but he tops the list with that lovely .264 BA of his.
2. Kelly Shoppach – Cleveland – Assuming he can get at bats
3. Chris Snyder – Arizona – Should be getting plenty of AB in ‘Zona, and a .348 OBP and .452 SLG are nice.
4. Jerod Saltalamacchia – Texas – If he can get AB, you really don’t need to worry about that .255 average
5. Jeff Clement – Seattle – Here’s another guy who put up a nasty BA last year, but really has the potential to hit much better than that which means you may have to pay a bit more for him.
6. Jesus Flores – Washington – Should get more than 300 AB this year, and put up 59 RBI in 300AB last year.  Looking Good.
7. Brandon Inge – Detroit – Could be a sleeper at catcher this year.  All the counting stats will be there if he plays.
8. Jason Kendall – Milwaukee – Awful .246 BA, but half decent counting stats.
9. Miguel Olivo / John Buck – Kansas City – Neither one of these guys put up a great BA, but both of them can contribute in other categories with steady AB.
10. Josh Bard / Jason Varitek – Boston Red Sox – Bard was awful last year, and Varitek is getting old. I’m not sure who gets the lions share of the AB, but whoever does will put up nice counting stats in that line-up.

First Base:

Obviously, I’ve raised the bar a bit for first base.  I’ve even included upto the guys with a .275 average, but a perceived *bad batting average*.  Guys like Cantu and LaRoche can’t be expected to repeat their high BA years, and if you’re in a league with smart people — they should be valued as a .260 hitter, not a .275 hitter.

Obviously, this isn’t about *predicting* future output, so much as it is a strategy.  If a player starts to get overvalued because he’s young, or a sleeper — he’s no good.  On the other hand, there’s no harm in taking someone who hits .310, if you’re not paying full price. The Guys who make sense here are:

1. Ryan Howard – Phillies – It’s tough to maximize your value in the early rounds of the draft. You don’t want to overspend on a player, as the entire strategy is about value. But Howard is a beast in 3 categories.
2. Adam Dunn – Free Agent – Check the Outfield Rankings, but he played 19 Games at first base last year
3. Carlos Pena – Tampa Bay – hit .247, but had a .377 OBP and almost .500 SLG. If you discount the average, Pena jumps up into the Big-Boy tier of first basemen.  Keep in mind Pena had 100 less AB than almost all of the other top-tier first basemen.  The difference between Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Pena really isn’t that great when you discount the 50 pt BA difference. Miguel Cabrera hit 6.01 HR per 100 AB, and Pena hit 6.32 HR per 100 AB. Pena’s stats are actually on par with all but a couple first basemen, if the average is discounted.  Pena bested Cabrera in every stat per AB, except BA.
4. Jason Giambi – Oakland Athletics – discount whether or not you think Giambi will decline switching from New York to Oakland, and just look at the numbers.  Terrible Batting Average, Nice OPS.
5. Nick Swisher – New York Yankees – I’m not sure if Swisher is going to find playing time, but he’s the king of punting BA.  Last year was an all around unlucky year for Swisher, but check out his stats from 2 years ago.  He’ll contribute in 3 Categories.
6. Adam LaRoche, Mike Jacobs, Jorge Cantu, Carlos Delgado – PIT, KC, FLA – none of these guys are in great offenses but they’re all pretty well known for being high SLG, low AVG guys.

Second Base:

This is the spot where you may have to spend some cash money if you don’t get one of the few low average / high counting guys.  As long as you don’t draft someone like Pedroia, Kinsler or a .300+ AVG guy — you’re good.  Drafting one of those gents is pretty much a waste.

1. Dan Uggla – Florida Marlins – If you need Home Runs, take Uggla.  His value is great, and so is everything except his BA
2. Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers – I’m not sure whats up with Weeks, and I wont get into it here. But If you need steals, take someone like weeks.  If he wasn’t a .235 hitter, he’d be a fantasy gem.
3. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds – Other than his .260 AVG which ain’t gonna change, he’s a great player.  Lots of value here.

Shortstop:

Here’s another spot where, we run into a bit of a psychological problem. The average batting average for a shortstop is pretty high, and if you’re in a league that doesn’t take into account a players value versus his peers; Some of the lower BA guys will be over-valued.

Many of the lower batting average guys, are also popular sleepers. Just remember, there is no harm in drafting someone with a decent average so long as you don’t overpay. You’re not paying for BA, so don’t even bother taking into account BA when evaluating your selections.

1. Jhonny Peralta – Cleveland Indians – posted a .276 BA in 2008, after years of .270 and .257. There’s 25 HR power here, along with great RBI and RUN stats
2. Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies – posted a .263 BA after a rookie campaign of .291 BA. Even at .291BA, there’s value here as Tulo’s in a good line-up, in a good park.
3. J.J. Hardy – Milwaukee Brewers – is another guy who put up a career high BA in 2008. In the 2005 and 2006 seasons, Hardy hit sub-.250.  Hardy brings a .478 SLG percentage to the table, which is what you’re looking for.

Third Base:

Lots of guys to choose from here:

There are more than a couple viable options at this point, where you dont have to invest much and you end up with a guy who has solid counting stats and a craptastic average.

1. Mark Reynolds – Arizona Diamondbacks – Obviously a few people will think that Reynolds can somehow mature and raise his batting average, which may start to raise Reynolds perceived value.  However, Reynolds is Adam Dunn Jr and will continue swatting at everything.  He has great numbers if you discount that awful batting average
2. Edwin Encarnacion – Cincinnati Reds  and Adrian Beltre – Seattle Mariners – Both of these gents should bring 25-30 HR and a .250-.260 batting average to the table.  Both guys are great value once you discount BA.
3. Alex Gordon – Kansas City Royals – I like Gordon this year, and I think he’ll finally become the hitter everyone assumed he’d be.  That’s beside the point though, Gordon doesn’t have a solid BA but he’s got power.  This is what we’re looking for
4. There are a few guys that fall into the bad batting average, bad on base percentage category.  These guys are normally doomed to failure, but you can take a risk on Bill Hall, Kevin Kouzmanoff or Joe Crede.

Lastly, Outfield:

In the outfield you’re going to find two types of guys with awful Batting Averages.  One type hits homers, the other type steals bases.  Both are useful, although i’d tend to lean towards grabbing the stolen base guys.

For the purpose of showcasing what’s out there in the later rounds, I’ll place the cut-off at .270 BA.  However, if you expand that to .280 for your first few rounds the list starts including: Nate McClouth, BJ Upton, Soriano, Torii Hunter, Jason Werth, Carl Crawford, etc.

You want to draft VALUE, while punting AVG.  So while Carl Crawford’s .280 BA isn’t exactly punting average, it makes sense to grab him which allows you to trade him, or just plug him in as you’re not really paying for the .280.

Here’s the whole list of guys who bat under .270 while getting at least 300 Plate Appearances in 2008.

Stolen Bases

1. Obviously, if you grab Grady Sizemore, nab him. He and Ryan Howard can form the basis of your wacky philosophy.
2. Willy Tavares – Cincinnati Reds – will bring a boatload of steals and an awful average
3. Corey Hart – Milwaukee Brewers – Power and Steals
4. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks – Lots of steals and power. I dont know how Arizona functions with this many low average, low OBP guys.
5. Mike Camera – Milwaukee Brewers – Long time bad-average guy.  He still brings 25 HR and 17 Steals to the plate.
6. Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins – Awful average, awful OBP.  Steals 30+ bases
7. Lastings Milledge – Washington Nationals – Almost bats .270, almost.
8. Michael Bourn – Houston Astros – Here we go again, Carlos Gomez v2.0. 230 AVG, and lots of steals
9. Jerry Owens – Chicago White Sox – Not listed but will probably steal a tonne if he starts
10. Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins – Rookie’s BA wont be pretty, but he’ll run.

Power & HR

1. Adam Dunn – Free Agent – Makes this list wherever he plays on the Diamond.
2. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros – Off year BA-wise after a great rookie campaign.  Regardless, hit 25 HR and stole 11 bases.
3. Pat Burrell – Tampa Bay Rays – 33 HR while batting .250
4. Jack Cust – Oakland Athletics – 33 HR, and almost 80 of each RUN and RBI
5. Nick Swisher – New York Yankees – Same as Dunn
6. Rick Ankiel – St. Louis Cardinals – HR looking solid at 25
7. You get the point.

Conclusions, Caveats, Warnings:

First off, feel free to use this list as a list of sneaky-low batting average guys, whose counting stats look good but can kill your batting average.

People cue in on different things when evaluating talent.  Sometimes batting average will be completely ignored by your peers and Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds will get taken high based on their stats.  If this has been the case in your league, I’d recommend implementing the reverse strategy of this.

Obviously, don’t waste a high draft pick on someone just because they fall into the system.  You’re going to have to draft some guys with solid batting averages, and possibly trade them away.  This strategy is much easier in an active league, where owners are willing to wheel and deal.

Finally, Runs and batting average are tied together so understand that while implementing this strategy.  There’s going to come a point where you’re going to need to grab some run-scorers.

As far as I can tell, you’ll be able to get all of the stats you need with this list of guys.  The power numbers, and the stolen base numbers are difinitely there.