Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers ( SP ) In 2009

Which starting pitchers will excel in 2009? A quick little look at the numbers each SP should put up, combined with a gut feeling of what they’ll actually put up.

#1 Johan Santana – SP – NY Mets

Bill James Prediction: 18-7, 234K, 3.01ERA, 1.07WHIP, 9.16 K:9

2008: 16 W, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206K, 7.91 K:9, 3.27 K:BB

Great things were expected of Santana last year after a tremendous 2007 campaign and while he didn’t disappoint, his strikeout numbers drastically decreased. 2008 was the first year that Santana failed to strikeout at least one batter per inning since becoming a starting pitcher.

Santana’s other 2008 numbers remained similar to career averages, and the slight increase in BB:9 isn’t concerning.

At this point, Santana is the safest bet. While another pitcher or two may finish ahead of Santana in the final standings — they’ll also come with larger risks.

CitiBank will almost certainly favour pitchers in the same manner that Shea did as the dimensions are almost exactly the same.

If Lincecum wasn’t 160lbs soaking wet, and Sabathia didn’t have the potential to eat the big apple; they’d both be able to give Santana a run for his money. As always, pitchers are a fickle bunch and even the dominant ones manage to get themselves hurt ruining your fantasy season.

#2 Tim Lincecum – SP – SF Giants

Bill James Prediction: 17-9, 272K, 3.02ERA, 1.19WHIP, 10.2 K:9

2008: 18 W, 2.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 265K, 10.5 K:9, 3.26 K:BB

Lincecum has potential to put up big boy stats, and quite possibly lead the league in just about every meaningful pitching category. I’d almost certainly put him as the top pitcher if not for his petite frame. At 5’11, 170lbs, the body just isn’t made to throw 95mph. His delivery is also a concern, and the possibility of injury is just to great to put Lincecum at number 1.

Everything else is great for Lincecum. He pitches in an incredibly pitcher friendly park, and he’s got great ratios.

While his WINS may not stack up against the kids in New York, he’ll manage more than a couple. Wins are the most random stat of the bunch anyways, so banking on them is generally a silly idea.

James’ predictions are almost always insanely conservative, so to see Lincecum improving on last years strike out numbers is a great sign. If you think Lincecum pitches all year without injury — there’s no harm in drafting him above Santana.

#3 C.C. Sabathia – SP – NY Yankees

BJP: 16-10, 205K, 3.48ERA, 1.23WHIP, 7.69 K:9

2008: 17 W, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251K, 8.93 K:9, 4.25 K:BB

Personally, I wouldn’t touch Sabathia with a ten foot pole. You’re going to have to pay too much for him in an auction draft, or draft him too early in a snake. Unless he falls into your lap, he’s probably going to be a reach due to the New York hype machine.

Sabathia also seems to have a bit of Manny Ramirez in him and now that he’s got the big fat contract, he may just let himself go.

Everyone will remember his 2008 finish, but the start of his 2008 season was concerning.

With all that said, C.C. Sabathia will fill the stat sheet for you. He’ll obviously put up solid win totals playing for the rebuilt Yankees.

C.C. Sabathia should top 200 Ks easily, and his ratios will remain as some of the best in the majors.

#4a Jake Peavy – SP – SD? Padres?

BJP: 14-8, 202K, 3.26ERA, 1.18WHIP, 9.0 K:9

2008: 10 W, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166K, 8.60 K:9, 2.81 K:BB

Peavy’s 2008 numbers weren’t as flashy as normal which has more to do with his IP totals than the slight decline in K:9.

Peavy probably has the best value in the top 10 SP, as many experts have him rated lower.

Peavy pitches in a pitcher’s park, and generally keeps his WHIP in the 1.05-1.10 range. His 2008 strained right elbow more than likely raised his WHIP while his GS fell.

Predicting a “bounce back” year for Peavy is easy to do. The potential for 210Ks with a sub-1.10 WHIP, and sub-3.00 ERA is hard to resist.

The difference between Peavy and the next group of pitchers simply comes down to ratios. Peavy’s ERA the past five years is 2.27, 2.88, 4.09, 2.54, 2.85 along with a 1.20, 1.04, 1.23, 1.06, 1.18 WHIP.

#4b Cole Hamels – SP – PHI Phillies

BJP: 16-8, 214K, 3.24ERA, 1.12WHIP, 8.64 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196K, 7.76 K:9, 3.70 K:BB

The difference between Hamels and Peavy is negligible and you can’t go wrong with either one. Personally, I think you’re going to have to pay more for Hamels for the same amount of production. Both have similiar ceilings, but Hamels has an offense behind him — which should lead to increased wins. Philadelphia also has a rock-solid bullpen that’s capable of holding onto leads, even with the loss of J.C. Romero.

If you can get Hamels cheaper than Peavy, by all means take him for the guaranteed wins.

Hamels has been injury free since he came to the Majors, but I believe he had a small series of minor league injuries. The potential is always there when you’re not built like a brick shithouse.

Hamels is the last of the guaranteed 200K, 1.20WHIP guys without injury worries. If you’re going to draft a starting pitcher early, I’d recommend getting in before this cut off point.

#6 Brandon Webb – SP – ARI Diamondbacks

BJP: 15-9, 176K, 3.37ERA, 1.24WHIP, 7.14 K:9

2008: 22 W, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183K, 7.27 K:9, 2.82 K:BB

Webb has been solid for a while now, and seems to go through an un-hittable phase each and every year. He’s got ridiculous sinking action on his fast ball which he throws about 3/4 of the time, at around 88-90mph.

He’s not a pure strike out pitcher, but he’ll creep up on 200k if he can notch 220-230 IP. This is a bit concerning however as he’s entering the “DEAR GOD- HIS ARM JUST FELL OFF” stage after 5 seasons of 200IP in a row. There’s the potential there for injury, but its limited.

Everything points to Brandon Webb keeping his WHIP in the 1.20 range. However, Webb went through a couple stints last year where he’d give up 5-7 runs per contest, which is worrisome.

There’s very little risk in drafting a player like Webb, and while he may not put up crazy K numbers he’ll hold his own as the ace of any staff.

#7 Dan Haren – SP – ARI Diamondbacks

BJP: 14-10, 174K, 3.59ERA, 1.20WHIP, 7.46 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206K, 8.53 K:9, 5.15 K:BB

When the Oakland Athletics get rid of a pitcher, he almost always becomes terrible. Dan Haren actually improved, however.

Haren was a machine in 2008, and with a BABIP of .315 after 4 years of .305 and below — he may actually improve.

Pitchers generally get a bump when they switch leagues as the hitters haven’t timed their delivery, nor have they seen their arsenal. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Haren come back down to earth a little bit although he had pitched a year and a half in Cardinal red and white.

With a 2008 K:9 of 8.58, a WHIP of 1.13, and a remarkable K:BB ratio of 5.15 — Haren is looking solid.

As mentioned earlier, Bill James is generally quite conservative and will rely on a three year average rather than a stunning previous year, if the data is available. I tend to agree with this approach, unless you believe a player has turned the corner. Obviously, you can’t tell simply based on stats whether or not a player has turned the corner.

So it’s up to you. Haren could easily put up numbers better than Webb and on par with Peavy and Hamels. There’s a bit of risk here, but not enough to keep you up at night.

#8 Roy Halladay – SP – TOR Blue Jays

BJP: 17-10, 172K, 3.18ERA, 1.13WHIP, 6.42 K:9

2008: 20 W, 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 206K, 7.53 K:9, 5.23 K:BB

Roy Halladay’s totals rely on how many games he starts. Halladay is a great pitcher, and a must have in any league that considers Complete Games or Quality Starts a category.

Roy’s K:9 took a huge leap last year, after many years of a consistent 5.5 to 6.5 ratio. To predict a repeat of his 2008 7.54 K per 9 is somewhat foolish.

When you draft Halladay, you’ll get your wins, era, and whip — guaranteed.

Unfortunately, his strike out numbers are going to depend heavily on innings pitched. He’s made a habit of throwing 230+ inninngs, and when he does that, he’ll put up solid K numbers.

While I have no data to suggest that Halladay ends up with a major shoulder injury this year, it seems quite possible given his workload and the Blue Jays dependance on him.

#9 Josh Beckett – SP – BOS Red Sox

BJP: 13-8, 176K, 3.57ERA, 1.22WHIP, 8.38 K:9

2008: 12 W, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 172K, 8.88 K:9, 5.06 K:BB

Josh has the dirty dirty and can hang with anyone. Over the past two years, he’s drastically cut back on his walks per nine (from 3+ to under 2.00), which fantasy owners love.

Unfortunately, Beckett has blister issues. He’s always has blister issues, and they’re certainly caused by his uncle charlie. His Curve is probably his best strike out pitch and he needs it to be an elite pitcher.

To add to this, he’s now becoming a dirty old man who bitches about his back all the time. So, he’s got some serious injury issues and if you’re banking on 200IP you may be in for a ride.

When Josh Beckett does pitch however, it’s beautiful. He strikes out a batter an inning, he’ll put up a sub-1.20 WHIP, his K:BB is 5 and he plays for the Red Sox.

#10 Rich Harden – SP – CHI Cubs

BJP: 11-5, 151K, 3.02ERA, 1.18WHIP, 9.44 K:9

2008: 10 W, 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 181K, 11.01 K:9, 2.97 K:BB

Yah, this is stupid.

Rich Harden is going to get hurt.

This pick / rating depends on how deep your league is. In a deep league, Harden gets moved down. But in a shallow league, where when Harden makes his eventual DL trip you’ll be able to spot start guys with favorable match-ups and keep your ERA under four: Harden goes here.

Harden’s numbers last year were ridiculous: 11! K! per! 9! , 1.06 WHIP

Basically, sit down and realistically figure out how many innings you think Harden will pitch. If you think he pitches more than 150 innings, its worthwhile to draft him. Even at 150 innings, he’ll strike out 160-170 and when you add that with 50 innings of spot starting nice matchups — you’re going to end up with a 200K guy, with a 1.20 WHIP, a 3.20 ERA.

Harden does have a huge history of injuries, and he’ll probably go down. How you value him really depends on what kind of waiver wire you think you’ll have. If the top 80-90 SP are gone, you’re probably going to want to wait on Harden.

Harden’s the biggest boom / bust of the entire draft.

Generally, I like to see at least a 7.5 to 8 strikeouts per nine, to throw this tag on. However, if a pitcher has a realistic shot of accumulating enough innings to reach 200 Ks with a lower ratio he should still be viewed as a source of K’s

ESPN uses an incredibly simple formula to determine which ball parks favor hitters, and which favor pitchers. Its called park factors, and since your pitchers play half of their games at home — it’s pretty important.

Greg Maddux-type accuracy is great to have on your roster. Dice-K type accuracy, is not. Dice-K can hit all of the spots, and ends up walking quite a few batters because he’s going for the perfect pitch each and every time. This is as much about WHIP as it is about accuracy.

Simple: he’s either coming off an injury, has a history of injuries, or he’s someone who’s 5’10, 170lbs, and throws 100mph. Tiny frames aren’t meant to throw that hard.

If you play with fire, you get burnt. These are just risky players, and a few of them on a roster is brilliant, but stacking your roster with boom/bust guys will end you up losing more often than winning.

Tim Lincecum Photography From Dave Nelson, Flickr