The Hype Machine loves New York and while it prefers the Yankees, the Mets will suffice. Daniel Murphy selected in the 13th round of the 2006 draft put up solid stats after an early August 2008 call-up.
While Murphy isn’t quite the prospect that Fernando Martinez is, he’ll be the one to break camp with a starting gig. He’ll be battling former Baseball America top-prospect Jeremy Reed, veteran journey-man Fernando Tatis and everyone’s favorite oxymoron Angel Pagan for at-bats in the left field position.
Daniel Murphy, welcome to the hype-machine.
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | OBP | SLG | AVG |
| 2008 | NYM | 49 | 131 | 24 | 41 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 28 | 0 | 2 | .397 | .473 | .313 |
| Total | 49 | 131 | 24 | 41 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 28 | 0 | 2 | .397 | .473 | .313 |
It’s pretty clear that we’re dealing with a tiny sample size, when examining Murphy’s professional career. So, to the minors we go:
| Year | Age | Team | Level | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2004 | 19 | JCK | NCAA | 32 | 77 | 12 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 0.377 | 0.455 | 0.506 | 0.961 |
| 2005 | 20 | JCK | NCAA | 54 | 219 | 35 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 0.329 | 0.381 | 0.429 | 0.81 |
| 2006 | 21 | JCK | NCAA | 57 | 221 | 54 | 88 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 15 | 7 | 34 | 13 | 0.398 | 0.47 | 0.534 | 1.004 |
| 21 | KIN | Rk | 9 | 33 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.273 | 0.351 | 0.455 | 0.806 | |
| 21 | MET | Rk | 8 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.056 | 0.227 | 0.056 | 0.283 | |
| 21 | BRO | A- | 8 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.241 | 0.324 | 0.276 | 0.6 | |
| 2007 | 22 | ST. | A+ | 135 | 502 | 68 | 143 | 34 | 3 | 11 | 78 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 61 | 0.285 | 0.338 | 0.43 | 0.768 |
| 2008 | 23 | BRO | A- | 3 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
| 23 | BIN | AA | 95 | 357 | 56 | 110 | 26 | 1 | 13 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 39 | 46 | 0.308 | 0.374 | 0.496 | 0.87 | |
| 23 | NO | AAA | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.4 | 0.25 | 0.65 |
An impressive 2007 gave way to a spectacular 2008, which lead to an incredible MLB-rookie debut. Daniel Murphy probably wont continue raking at a .340+ clip as he did in the Minors, or even a .313 rate that he posted in the first 49 MLB games.
There’s no reason to believe that Daniel Murphy can’t at least hit between .290 and .300 over the course of a season while posting a .360 OBP.
In 2008, Murphy posted a stupid-silly BABIP of .386 which is bound to come down. This is why the stat-heads always warn you about small sample-sizes. Of course Murphy’s batting average will drop as his BABIP drops, but his 33% LD rate seems like a half-decent indicator of a higher than average BABIP for the rest of Murphy’s career.
The problem is whether or not he’ll stick at the big-league level. Murphy can competantly play the outfield, third-base, and first-base. Last year the second base experiment began, and while he’s not naturally suited to the position, it’s one of the few places on the diamond where he has an above average bat.
If Murphy sticks at 2nd base going into 2009, he’ll be a steal. Whether or not he bats in the two-hole, or in the 7th or 8th spot will also make a difference.
Murphy’s got double-digit HR potential, and should post a solid average. Even if he hits at the end of a decent Mets line-up the R & RBI should be fine.
Bill James’ prediction model has Murphy at 74 RBI / 73 RUN / 14 HR / 14 SB / .296 AVG.
This looks pretty rosterable to me.
Murphy also had a solid Arizona Fall league season posting a .397 AVG / .487 OBP / .619 SLG
The Verdict: Murphy’s going to be a great late round flyer in the outfield, with the upside of transforming that power into a starting second base gig. As long as Murphy finds a way to play, he’ll be worth rostering in deeper leagues. Feed the machine, it feasts on doubles hitters in high-octane offenses.
