The Hype Machine
Brandon Morrow – Starting Pitcher (SP) – Seattle Mariners
February 7, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment
The hype-machine has decided to travel back in time and examine the 2006 draft, searching for a terrific pitcher.
Is it 11th overall selection Max Scherzer? Nope.
Is it 10th overall selection Tim Lincecum? Nope. Keep Going!
Is it Clayton Kershaw, drafted 7th overall? Nope. Further, my friend. Further and Higher.
What about Andrew Miller, Drafted 6th overall? Nope, higher still.
Oh, You must be searching for the 5th overall draft pick. The flame thrower from UC Berkeley, Brandon Morrow. Yup, that’s it.
Morrow’s name has been plastered all over “Sleepers for 2009″ sections, in all of the major magazines and websites. I’m guessing this has something to do with his 95.5 MPH fastball
Let’s take a little bit of a look at this flame thrower, and his limited relief statistics so far:
| Year | Team | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SHO | SV | SVO | INN | H | R | ER | HR | HBP | BB | SO |
| 2007 | SEA | 3 | 4 | 4.12 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 63.1 | 56 | 29 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 66 |
| 2008 | SEA | 3 | 4 | 3.34 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 64.2 | 40 | 26 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 34 | 75 |
| Total | 6 | 8 | 3.73 | 105 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 128.0 | 96 | 55 | 53 | 13 | 1 | 84 | 141 |
What Jumps out? Well, his K to BB ratio is not even 2. This is a problem.
A quick look for pitchers that have a K:BB ratio of 2 and lower, reveals:
- Jair Jurrgens posted a (1.99 K:BB)
- Ubaldo Jiminez ( 1.67 K:BB)
- Mike Pelfrey (1.72 K:BB)
- Dice-K (1.64)
- Dana Eveland (1.53)
- Manny Parra (1.96)
- Carlos Zambrano (1.81)
- Ian Snell (1.52)
- Oliver Perez (1.71)
You get the point. It’s going to be tough for Morrow to be anywhere near as dominant as experts project unless he can drastically lower his walk rate. His 10.44 strike outs per nine is nice to look at, but as long as its accompanied by a 4.73 BB / 9 rate — he’s in trouble.
Morrow’s ERA Prior to becoming a starter 1.47 ERA over 36.2 IP
Morrow’s ERA After becoming a starter in September, where he pitched 5 games, 3.34 ERA over 64.2 IP.
This is quite the jump.
Lets look at the projection systems: Bill James has him posting 10.04K:9, and a 5.70 BB:9. CHONE has him at 10.5 K per 9, and 5.05 BB per 9.
Bill James’ maths translate these numbers into 140 Innings Pitched, an 8-8 record, and a 3.84 ERA to go along with a 1.43 WHIP. This is not pretty.
Obviously, with the switch to the Starting Pitcher Role, you’d expect Morrow’s WHIP to rise from his 1.20 in 2007, and 1.14 in 2008. How far you think it’ll go up, is really up to interpretation.
Morrow’s spent a season working with Pitching God, Mel Stottlemyre. If there’s anything that’ll change a flame-throwing kid for the positive, it’s Mel.
Now, with that said. There’s a few questions you should ask yourself before drafting Brandon Morrow.
- Do you think he’ll pitch the entire year? 140 IP seems reasonable, 200 Seems possible.
- If he does pitch the entire year, what are the odds he fatigues and sucks it up around the end of the season. If you have an active league where you can trade Brandon Morrow after the All-Star break — then there’s a good amount of value here. If you’re in a league where no one trades because everyone always needs to get the best of the trade — buyer beware.
- Will he add a pitch? Right now Morrow is sitting on a blistering fastball, a good slider, and a splitter that tends to mimmick the slider pretty closely. He has nothing that’ll tail from lefties. If Morrow can get his change working, or pick up a decent curve he’ll be set. Right Now, I tend to think he’s better served in a late rotation or bullpen role.
All and All, just keep an eye on Morrow. If he’s looking good, and reports are good — then he’s worth the risk with a K:9 above 10.
The Verdict: The Machine likes flame-throwers but it can find plenty of them floating around. Don’t overpay for Morrow based on the appearance of a pitcher with a sub-1.20 WHIP. Understand you’re getting a High-K, High-BB guy with the potential of experiencing dead arm syndrome. You’re getting more Ubaldo Jiminez (not a bad thing) than Joba Chamberlain.
Photo Courtesy of MarkSobba Flickr
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