Bobby Abreu has apparently inked up a 5-million dollar, 1 year deal, which could end up being 8 million if he fulfills all of the lovely incentives contracts have now-a-days. I’m guessing it’s your basic 500+ PA = 1 Million, 100RBI = 500K, 100 R = 500K, Curing Colo-Rectal Cancer = The Remainder.
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You know the economy is in the tank when elderly-sluggers are agreeing to short term contracts that pay them around their current value, rather than past value. It wasn’t that long ago when the Angels had to doll out 50 million over 5-years to nail down a 32-year old Gary Matthews Jr.
With that said, if you’re an Abreu owner or plan to become one sometime in the near future, this is probably what you were looking for. Elderly Eight-Figure Angels Attempting To Play The Outfield, is also in Disney pre-production with Danny Glover already signed on to play Bobby Abreu and Cheech Marin reportedly in talks for the role of Juan Rivera.
There’s a nice little post on fangraphs that examines where the AB are going to come from, because quite frankly I’m a bit perplexed — but whenever you can sign someone as consistent as Abreu for relatively cheap, you’ve gotta jump.
So, who’s value is affected the most?
Brandon Wood had one last shot to lose the perma-prospect, possible AAAA player, tag that comes with hitting 30 HR in AAA and following that up with a 30% K-rate and .551 OPS in the Majors. Yes, that’s On Base Plus Slugging. I thought Wood had a shot at proving himself this year, but maybe another year concentrating solely on defense and strike-zone judgment will help him in the long run.
Gary Matthews Jr. looks like he’ll miss at least a month of the 2009 season, as he slowly and surely recovers from off-season knee surgery. Matthews Jr. really stunk the joint up last year, batting sub-.250 with little power or speed to speak of. The signing of Abreu may actually help Matthews, allowing him time to genuinely recover. Matthews Jr. goes from almost no fantasy value, to actually being a solid pickup once the injury bug hits or September rolls around. Matthews Jr’s glove should keep him in the outfield when the going gets tough.
Juan Rivera just inked a 3-year 12-million dollar contract with the Angel’s this off-season, which at the time seemed like a solid move by the team. Rivera’s value is slightly decreased by the signing of Abreu, but I still think he’ll get his AB. If Rivera can get somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 plate appearances, he’ll have value. The previous two years have not been kind injury-wise to Rivera, but the Abreu signing doesn’t change that. What the Abreu signing does do is allow Rivera a better shot at scoring runs, or driving in runs.
Abreu is bound to bat second, there’s no way he doesn’t bat second so: Figgins, Abreu, Vladdy, Hunter, Rivera seems about right.
The Rest: Vladimir Guerrero, Torii Hunter, and the Arse End (Kendrick & Aybar/Izturis)
These gents should all benefit quite a bit with the Abreu signing. Abreu brings a .300 AVG, and .380OBP to the table (Bill James has him at .389OBP) which should increase his, and his peers Runs Batted In. While Abreu is no longer the dude that smashed a .550 SLG percentage each and every year, he’ll still hit around .470-.480 on the SLG scale which means — Kendrick, Aybar and Figgins are going to be scoring at least 4 or 5 more runs.
The fantasy world doesn’t deal with defense, so from a purely offensive perspective — this is a great deal. Abreu increases everyone’s value, almost completely across the board.
The Angels are aggressive by nature, but this may mean that Scoisca doesn’t give them the green quite as much. We’re starting to get a bit trivial, but maybe take away 2 or 3 SB from each of Figgins, Aybar and Izturis.
If you expected Aybar or Kendrick to be batting second, obviously you’ve gotta downgrade them.
Onto Abreu, Bobby Abreu.
Abreu’s still going to get some beautiful pitches to hit and his eye is still going to come in handy. Unless you think Abreu has fallen off the cliff skill-wise, you can expect similar numbers with possibly — just maybe — a slight increase in Stolen Bases.
20 HR, 100R, 100RBI, 25SB, and a 300 AVG are probably his ceiling and his basement. The only issue is an injury issue. When you’ve got a line-up and outfield as deep as the Angels, you’ll be given a couple days off here and there. Brandon Wood’s probably going to get some AB here and there, as will Willits.
