FTW

2009 Spring Training: Useful? + Day 1 Recap.

It’s the end of February and Grapefruit and Cactus League action has begun.  Following these games and boxsores is incredibly important, and you’ll gain unlimited insight by watching them.

Actually, not really — not really at all. There are a few folk that believe a massive increase in OPS percentage during Spring Training means success:

Nevertheless, that past research did find one exception. A hitter that has a tremendous Spring Training does correlate to a better than normal season. In precise statistical terms, a hitter with a positive difference between their Spring Training slugging percentage and their lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more alerts us to a step forward in the coming season.

(full article here: http://www.actasports.com/sow.php?id=39)

Generally Spring Training isn’t much use at all, short of alerting us to injuries.  There’s always a bunch of stories that come out of Spring Training about players ready to “hit more home-runs” or “steal more bases”. Players enjoy mentioning how much muscle-weight they’ve put on, or body-fat they’ve dropped.

Spring Training can help you judge defense though. While defense isn’t a fantasy baseball category, it is a real baseball category; which makes it important.

Most of the young prospects that get invites to camp have Major League ready bats, but seriously lack in the defensive category.  Earlier, I wrote about Mat Gamel and how much fun he’ll have at the hot-corner and this is a perfect example.  Gamel will get some reps at third, and how he fares will largely dictate his immediate future.

Hitting and pitching statistics are generally skewed by the level of preparation, and level of competition but fielding is fielding.  A career minor leaguer can still hit a ground ball to third just as well as Albert Pujols can.  Gamel’s footwork needs some work, a lot of work, and while he may only have a few opportunities a game; it’s worth paying attention to.

With that said, a brief Recap of the first day of 2009 Spring Training Thus Far:

1. Andruw Jones struck out twice in two AB, sound familiar? 100% K-Rate, So Far So Good.
2. The Mark Teahan is a great second baseman experiment is going well: 2 Errors (1 fielding, and one throwing, yipee)
3. Homer Bailey is awesome again, 1IP / 2K
4. Chris Dickerson jumped Jerry Hairston Jr. for the top of the LF Depth Chart. Hairston played Shortstop today — I figure he’ll find himself AB this year, and could be a sleeper. Hopefully Dickerson takes the starting LF gig though.
5. Noted Back-Pimpler, Jordan Schaffer, played the whole game. I still like him at some point this year — God, The Braves are boring.
6. In our first 10 Inning Tie of the year, Colby Rasmus still turns me on and the Skip Schumaker second base experiment appears to be going better than Teahan’s.
7. The Jays got pasted, and I’m not sure whether or not I’m enthused or suicidal seeing Adam Loewen in the box-score as a RF.  Kevin Millar and Justin Lane also make appearances.
8. Noted Awesome, Fernando Martinez, is back in action after a strained elbow.  Danny Murphy played the field, and it looks like that’s where he’ll stick — You’re stuck with Castillo as you’re 2-bagger.
9. The Pirates’ prospect factory is looking solid, hopefully they can keep Alvarez, McCutchen, Tabata, and Pearce.  If Andy LaRoche ever grew a new back, that didn’t spasm, and learned to hit Big-League pitching — they could keep him too. The Phillies will never repeat after this devastating loss to the Bucos.
10. The Nats played without Dunn, Dukes or Johnson. Story out of Nats’ camp reports Dukes impregnated a female fan, Dunn tried to hit her and missed, and Johnson who rushed to her aid, hurt his back in the process.  Milledge is apparently putting the FUN back into Fundamentals. Noted Canadian, Pete Orr, went 1/2.
11. Jerry Owens took a walk. Chicago’s only walk. A WALK! Brandon Wood did not cease to exist.
12. The Rangers are going to be fun to watch.
13. Brad Ausmus stole a base! for the Dodgers. Hopefully I can find a clip. Jeff Samardzja should have played football.
14. The Oakland Athletics outfield is still deep and messy….there’s a joke here.
15. Giants’ Schierholtz went deep, and they’re rostering someone named BOCOCK. I dig. Velez stole a base, and the Indians let Martinez play Catcher.
16. Arizona Fall League stand-out,  Eric Young Jr., played second base for the Rockies.  This is interesting as his path in Center-field is blocked by Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez.  Young had earlier switched from second to center, despite this.  Now, if he can get a handle on second — he may just be a sleeper.  You can check out his Arizona Fall League blog post here.
17. The Diamondbacks are still the Diamondbacks, and I still like Felipe Lopez.
18. It’s the bottom of the 8th in the Twins vs. Red Sox Spring Training Game.  MLB has someone out there doing a live blog, with all sorts of pretty photos and such.

And we’re done day one. I’m sure some Injury News will come out sooner or later.